kscans

Chapter 101 - Chapter 3. The Neutral Theory of Change

The former Second Knight Order headquarters, located near the royal palace, now served as the headquarters for the Anti-Monster Knight Order. Its magnificent gates were a world away from the Third Knight Order's garrison, which looked more like a field encampment.

As I was led into the spacious central conference room, I felt a little out of place.

Am I being glared at?

The young, unfamiliar knight who had guided us to the conference room was giving me a sharp look.

"That must be the new aide, hired from the former Second Knight Order," Claudia whispered in my ear.

I see, so this is part of the personnel integration to unite the new knight order. As I was thinking this, the glare somehow intensified.

"If I recall, he's Clau's childhood friend," Alfina whispered to me.

Ah, now that I think about it, Claudia was like this at first, too. As if he had read my mind, the knight approached with a look that said he could not hold back any longer. What on earth did I do wrong?

"Why is a mere commoner merchant sitting so naturally between Her Highness the Princess and Claudia?"

"...You're right. My apologies."

It was a perfectly valid point, so I apologized without thinking.

"Hyde. The seating arrangement was by Her Highness's orders."

The one who spoke was Count Adele, Claudia's father. Weren't you glaring at me just as hatefully a moment ago?

"But, Sub-Commander..."

"It's infuriating, but it is a fact that this man has made a significant contribution to the knight order. As infuriating as it is, he is also my benefactor."

Adele said to the persistent Hyde. The knight order's transport carriages were being replaced one after another with the improved models. The two craftsmen in Bertold were screaming with joy. Although, mixed in were genuine screams about how painful it was to be pressed for deadlines by the Count.

Regarding the pollen, experiments had shown that its effects lasted as long as it was kept dry. I intended to move on to the next phase of preparations against the dragons. That would involve pharmacokinetic tests of the pollen's components, so I would have to rely on Fulsy.

"Sorry to keep you waiting."

The door at the back of the room opened, and Craig appeared with two knights. Everyone stood and bowed their heads.

"The following is an analysis of the consequences of the disaster derived from Princess Alfina's prophecy."

"The first thing we should examine is, as expected, the movement of the magic veins."

The prophecy of Bertold's Collapse, an inauspicious prediction we were already aware of, was explained. The Chancellor's information control would be lifted at the same time, meaning the Grand Duke of Kurtheite would also learn of it. It seemed this was as long as they could delay it.

From here on, a very unreasonable competition would begin, a race to see how far forward we could get before being shot in the back. A monster at the front gate, an enemy faction at the back gate, so to speak. It was an ordinary, common thing in the world, but a pain nonetheless.

"Is this the current state of the Red Forest and the magic veins in the western part of the kingdom?"

"Yes, it is a map created using the results from aiming the antenna... the measuring device, toward the west, as well as the measurements taken during the previous carriage race."

The prince looked at the map submitted by Noel and Mia. Mia and Noel had finished normalizing the data and performing a statistical analysis. There were no signs of a monster flood in the Red Forest, and it was reconfirmed that the faint magic veins spreading across the western kingdom, that is, east of Bertold, were calming down.

"In other words, there are no abnormalities in the magic veins for now, and we have a system in place to detect any potential issues immediately. Ricardo's proposal has paid off," Craig said to me.

"Given that large-scale fluctuations in the magic veins are occurring, it's only natural to create a system to learn about them in real-time. ...But in reality, the credit goes to Director Fulsy and Noel, the court magician's apprentice. Hahaha..."

Hyde's face twisted in surprise, so I said this in a hurry. I could not stand the misunderstanding that I was the one managing the early warning system.

"In that case, we have no choice but to consider other possibilities," Count Adele said bitterly. The disaster would come from the east. With castle walls destroyed with clear intent and a city trampled, an attack by humans, the most dangerous animal to other humans besides monsters, could not be ruled out.

"There's no possibility of the Empire taking a roundabout route to attack from the east, is there?"

"No, considering the marching routes, it's unthinkable. If the Empire were to take such a reckless path, they would be exposing the greatest weakness of their supply lines directly to the Royal Capital. Even if they had a large number of those carriages, that would not change."

"Hmm, the disaster will occur in two months at the latest. If the Empire were to make a move, we would surely know."

Craig nodded at Adele's words.

"What about you, Ricardo? You could probably devise some outlandish way to bring down Bertold, couldn't you?"

"I am a complete amateur when it comes to military operations."

"Oh? The same Ricardo who lectured me that the efficiency of the transport corps is the most crucial aspect of the knight order's activities, and then sold me improved carriages, is an amateur?"

"Merchants are experts in logistics, after all."

As usual, this prince was bad for my heart in all sorts of ways.

"R-Ricardo-kun is a merchant, so he should stay in a safe place. Having him contribute as a merchant is surely the best way to prevent the disaster."

"Oh? Is that a prophecy?"

"No. But I understand Ricardo-kun better than you do, Your Highness Craig."

Alfina glared at Craig. Craig looked back at his sister-in-law with a relaxed expression. I appreciate the sentiment, but please don't create an atmosphere that feels like a crisis splitting the Third Prince's faction.

"Well then, that leaves us with no choice but to consider Kurtheite," Craig said. Apparently, he had tried to lighten the mood with a joke before moving on to an unpleasant topic. A skill I don't possess. And people who lack such skills often end up being the butt of the joke.

"No matter how much some may try to pit you, Commander, against the Second Prince, I find that scenario highly unlikely."

"You're right. No matter how much my brother has been cornered thanks to Ricardo."

Craig said, rendering Hyde's consideration moot. His gaze was fixed on the Royal Capital on the map. Yes, it's hard to imagine. The Royal Capital lies between Kurtheite and Bertold.

"Even from the perspective of His Majesty or the Chancellor, it's unthinkable they would permit the Royal Capital to attack Bertold," Craig said. The Royal Capital and Kurtheite teaming up to crush Bertold. In this case, it seems we did not need to consider the worst-case scenario of an imperial decree for a punitive expedition. However, the Royal Capital had another matter for concern.

"However, if we are to be wary of the Second Prince's faction, we cannot rule out a connection with the Empire. After all, an Imperial Princess is in the Royal Capital."

"Considering the timing, it would be too naive to think it's unrelated. Ricardo, you're her classmate, are you not? I heard you were invited to the Imperial Residence."

"Her Highness the Imperial Princess's real target is you, Prince. It seems she wants to hear the heroic tale of your dragon subjugation," I retorted.

"That's right. Your Highness Craig should be the one to deal with Princess Lisabet. Ricardo-kun is too dangerous," Alfina said for some reason.

"Oh? Why is Ricardo dangerous? As fellow academy students, it would be perfectly natural, would it not?" the prince asked back, amused.

"Um, well, that's because Ricardo-kun is..."

After saying that much, Alfina tilted her head.

"That's right. Ricardo-kun has a lot of information that would be valuable to the Empire. So, letting him get close to Princess Lisabet is very dangerous," Alfina said.

"Well, that's true. If I were the Empire, I'd make him a top-priority target. If Ricardo were to side with the Empire, I'd have to seriously start thinking about what to do after we lose."

What a terrifying joke. If my allegiance determines the winner, then the idea of eliminating such an uncertain element might come up, wouldn't it?

"Commander, even if you are teasing Her Highness the Princess, that joke goes too far."

Hyde admonished the commander. He looked around as if seeking agreement. Why isn't anyone nodding at his perfectly reasonable words?

"Well, be that as it may. In the end, this means we cannot identify the disaster with the information we currently have."

"That seems to be the case. There are no factors anywhere that could destroy Bertold's walls in multiple locations."

The room fell silent with an air of stalemate.

I looked down at the map Fulsy and the others had created. A monster flood from the west was at least three years away, and the magic veins in the west were unquestionably calming down. Overall, the amount of miasma was decreasing by a statistically significant amount.

But looking closer, there was a faint pattern in the magic vein region. There were several striped areas where the levels were higher than the surroundings. Could something be happening here? However, even in these higher areas, the levels were slightly lower than what we measured during the race. No significant difference, just a tendency, but at the very least, they were not increasing.

"No, that's not it. It's the opposite."

There are several places where it is decreasing. In terms of "change" within the faint magic vein region east of Bertold, the clearest pattern is one of decrease.

When something is about to happen, it is natural to look for directly connected factors. But if you cannot find any, you should focus on the change itself. In economics case studies, there are examples where a company's groundbreaking new product led to its own bankruptcy. Conversely, there are countless examples of a corporate scandal becoming the catalyst for a company's great leap forward.

My old mentor used to say he could not understand managers who rejoice at a rival company's misfortune. A twist in causality is rare, but when it does happen, the impact is immense.

"Mia. Noel. The numbers here, can you look at them with a smaller mesh... in more detail?"

"Why? That's a place where the magic vein activity is decreasing."

Noel tilted her head as she looked at the spot I pointed to. But seeing Mia silently begin her calculations, Noel followed suit.

"In the several spots that are decreasing, they are decreasing consistently. At first, I thought it was an artifact of the measurement limits, but there is a clear pattern."

Four... no, five of them. There was what could be called a series of magic vein cold spots, lined up north to south. The prince and the other members of the knight order looked puzzled.

"What are you talking about? If the magic is decreasing, then there's no problem, is there?" Hyde said.

"That is true, but the arrangement of the decreasing spots is too regular."

Between Bertold and the Royal Capital. A wave-like pattern had appeared there, almost like an interference pattern from a quantum mechanics experiment. This meant there were circular spots where the magic was decreasing.

"Then, what do you claim is going to happen?"

"I don't know. As I said, it's possible it only looks like a regular decrease due to the limits of our measurements. I think the only way to be sure is to verify it with my own eyes."

I pointed to the cold spot closest to the Royal Capital.

"Is it time for 'that' to make an appearance? You'll be coming along as well, I assume."

Fulsy, who had been looking bored, suddenly looked up.

"It seems I have to go to Bertold anyway, so it's in the same direction," I said. I had to make an evacuation plan that included Euphillia and the workshop.

"Alright. We'll leave the investigation to the Sage and Ricardo. As a precaution, we will prepare to move out at any time. Right, you go along as their escort, Hyde."

"...Understood."

Craig just had to say that. Hyde glared at me as he bowed to the prince.

"Alfina, I want you to subtly approach the Imperial Princess and get a feel for whether she knows anything about the prophecy. It shouldn't be too dangerous at the academy. If you use a meeting with me as bait, she won't do anything rash."

"Understood."

Alfina, who had been pleading with her eyes to come with me, reluctantly nodded.

Come to think of it, Sherry had promised to go eat French toast with Lisabet. Security would be easy to arrange at Plural's shop, and besides, Sherry and Rilka would surely feel more secure with Alfina there.