kscans

Chapter 115 - Episode 4: Middle Part, The Pre-Mortem Analysis

Fulsy and I stepped out into the hallway and headed for the waiting room. It felt like a wasted effort, but there was nothing we could do. Fulsy was only there to provide explanations. He might have had the right to speak, but he likely had no vote, and I had no right to speak at all. The rest was up to Euphillia, Craig, and the Chancellor.

The corridor was filled with nobles gathered in small groups, whispering amongst themselves. Their faces were etched with anxiety. They must be worried about getting caught in the conflict between the second and third princes.

"Ricardo."

Halfway down the hall, Craig called out to me. He led me away from the conference room into a small chamber. Inside were Euphillia, the Chancellor, and Count Adele. Including Craig, all of them wore stern expressions. It seemed they were planning to readjust their tactics for the second half of the meeting.

"The problem is how dense that neutral faction is," Euphillia said to me. Apparently, among those voicing passive opinions were nobles who would actually suffer the most from an Imperial invasion.

"Some of the Imperial ciphers suggested they were making overtures to the western lords. However, we've seen no evidence of cooperation between those suspect western lords and Grand Duke Kurtheite or His Highness the Second Prince," the Chancellor said. It seemed the Second Prince's faction wasn't the only source of traitors in our midst. Still, to think they’re keeping an eye on things like that. This is definitely beyond me.

"What do you think, Ricardo?" Craig asked me.

This was my weakest area. If the previous meeting was like a session of parliament, this felt like a cabinet meeting. The Chancellor was looking at me, too. I was hoping someone would throw me a lifeline, maybe by pointing out what a mere commoner could possibly know.

"...I don't know. To begin with, what level of outcome are you hoping to achieve from this meeting?" I asked in return.

I was probably missing the point. I had fundamentally assumed that everyone would unite against the Empire.

"We have to make the neutral faction, at the very least, recognize the threat of the Empire, or this conversation goes nowhere. The First Knight Order, in particular, must be made to face reality. The fact that they survived the last disaster with almost no damage has become a hindrance."

"My second brother and the Grand Duke are a lost cause. It's doubtful they even understand what they're doing," Euphillia and Craig said.

So, the veteran politicians had judged that the Second Prince's faction was simply being used by the Empire. Considering the Chancellor's words, it meant the Empire didn't even see these traitors as allies.

No, in that case, should I call the Second Prince's faction less of a traitor and more of an incompetent ally for now? Either way, they're a more terrifying presence than the enemy.

Their judgment was far more reliable than mine, and judging by the reactions of the Eastern Grand Duke and the Second Prince when they heard the information about the Empire, it certainly felt that way.

"...Regarding this matter, the Empire has prepared thoroughly, whereas the Kingdom has... well, this meeting. In other words, what we lack most right now is time."

Since I couldn't possibly predict the votes, I first defined the problem. It was the unpleasant reality that we were already losing before the fight even began. If we hadn't obtained information about the magic veins and the Horse-Dragons, we would have been invaded without even realizing the Empire's hostility. However, the Empire must have had its own miscalculations. They probably intended to crush Bertold, the linchpin of the west, with a living battering ram and advance their strategy amidst the chaos.

"That's true enough, but what do we do specifically?"

"We make use of the Second Prince's faction. We should create a situation where the harder they work to protect their own position, which they equate with helping the Empire, the more it delays the Imperial invasion."

Let's use the spies as double agents. That was my proposal. In fact, since the Second Prince's faction was fundamentally an enemy, I had already considered how to deal with them. The seeds were already sown.

"Can you really pull off something that convenient?"

"The key is Princess Lisabet, whom we have in custody," I said.

"I trust this is a story we can tell Alfina?" Euphillia said for some reason. I didn't understand what she meant.

"Isn't Princess Lisabet a sacrificial pawn, left behind by the Empire to spark a war? They surely place no value on her," the Chancellor objected.

The Empire might have even left her behind as kindling for a conflict. Even if we returned her unconditionally as the Empire demanded, it would have no diplomatic meaning. But that was based on the situation at that time.

"Things are different now," I said, explaining that Lisabet now held the greatest piece of intelligence the Empire desired, the secret to defeating the dragons, which was the key to assessing the Kingdom's military strength.

"We will let this information reach the Empire, and at the same time, we'll entrust the negotiations for the princess's return to the Second Prince's faction. Furthermore, we'll make them think they have a chance to obtain that pollen. We can buy time while they negotiate her return and scheme to acquire the pollen for the Empire."

"Indeed. That is the information they wanted to know most."

"Furthermore, we will actually give the pollen to the princess. The Empire will have no choice but to spend even more time verifying the information's authenticity."

"What?" "Wouldn't that be a problem?" the three of them exclaimed in surprise.

I explained the properties of the pollen that had been revealed by Dalgan's investigation.

"I see. So you mean to fight poison with poison," Euphillia and Craig said, nodding. But the Chancellor's expression turned grim.

"Certainly, if we can buy time, there's nothing better. But what about the neutral faction? They might let their guard down, thinking the threat from the Empire has subsided with the princess's return."

"What is their primary motivation?"

"Fear, I suppose. Fear that something different from the past will happen."

Humans crave stability. That's why they want to ignore the very existence of the Empire, a new and terrifying presence.

"Then let's use that. We'll give their fear a concrete form."

"How? Surely we can't capture a Horse-Dragon and drag it before them."

"We'll use a proper meeting technique. It's a method called a 'pre-mortem' cause of death analysis," I said.

I had read about it in a book by a psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in my old world. It was devised by a man named Gary Klein. It was a bit of a drastic measure, but in this case, it was a perfect fit.

As the members tilted their heads at the contradiction in the term, I explained our strategy for the second half of the meeting.

◇◇

"Both sides have presented opinions that contain points worth considering. Therefore, I would like to examine each argument in turn."

The second half of the meeting began, with the Chancellor first indicating the direction of the discussion. On his throne, the King gave a solemn nod. Incidentally, after our discussion, the Chancellor had also visited the waiting room of the Second Prince's faction. He was maintaining the stance of a neutral chairman, listening to both opposing sides.

"Well then, allow me to begin. From the standpoint that the Empire intends to invade the Kingdom using powerful demonic beasts, I must start with the worst-case scenario," Craig began, giving me a mischievous glance.

"I would like you, my lords, to consider how the Kingdom might be destroyed by an Imperial invasion. I especially look forward to the opinions of those with domains in the west and of the First Knight Order, who specialize in combat against human opponents."

A stir ran through the chamber at Craig's words. This was the pre-mortem analysis. In short, based on a future where the Kingdom has already been destroyed by the Empire, we would now consider the process of how it was destroyed.

In other words, it was also a simulation of how you would destroy the Kingdom if you were the Empire.

"In the wars up until fifty years ago, the Empire relied on brute force, while the Kingdom countered with a strategy of attrition, using its greater numbers, geographical advantages, and superior supply lines. As a result, every Imperial invasion has been repelled. Am I correct, Commander of the First Knight Order?"

"Y, yes. That is correct," the commander of the First Knight Order nodded, bewildered. A discussion predicated on defeat was likely a blind spot in the Knight Order's way of thinking.

"However, this time the Empire has a way to overturn this. It is the Horse-Dragons that the Great Sage explained earlier..."

Craig proposed a blitzkrieg operation carried out by Horse-Dragons, which were faster, sturdier, and had a longer range than horses.

"Now, in this case, which fortress would be the first to be attacked using the mobility of the Horse-Dragons?"

Craig pointed to a large map and looked at the neutral faction. One of the nobles hesitantly raised his hand.

"...Morant would be in the most danger. Following a normal route, it would take too long from the river crossing point, but..." He glanced left and right, then continued. "If, as His Highness says, the Empire's mounts have the power to traverse mountains and fields, then it would become the primary target..."

I drew an arrow on the large map. Among the fortresses arranged in a loose circle around the river crossing with the Empire, it was set back a step. If it were breached, the alignment of the fortresses would be split east and west.

"I see," Craig said, sounding impressed. The man was likely a noble from the area around Morant.

"Wait, we don't know if the Empire is truly going to attack."

"Grand Duke Kurtheite. We will thoroughly discuss your argument after this," the Chancellor said. The eastern Grand Duke sat down, his fists trembling.

"Then, after the defense line is breached, what will be the Empire's next move? Will they head for Here to reach Bertold, or strike at Cole to threaten the Royal Capital..." Craig put a hand to his chin.

"Hold on. That sort of simplistic thinking is what confuses fighting mindless monsters with fighting humans. If the Empire has a competent mind behind it, their next target will be Kazel," the Commander of the First Knight Order interjected as if he could no longer bear it. I searched for Kazel on the map. It was not Bertold nor the Royal Capital, but in a rather ambiguous position...

"I see, a strategy to keep an eye on both Bertold and the Royal Capital," I finally understood with Craig's words. The Kingdom, its defenses breached, would be split between Bertold and the Royal Capital, creating a situation where we were in check and about to lose a major piece.

"Indeed, should such a situation arise, some lords would surely be shaken," Euphillia said, looking at the neutral faction. A noble who had spoken passively about defending against the Empire just moments before now lowered his head.

The discussion continued.

If the Royal Capital falls, it's over. Even if we defend the capital, Bertold would fall, and the western breadbasket would be seized. With their greatest weakness, their precarious supply lines, now gone, the Empire would conquer the entire Kingdom within a few years.

The majority of the neutral faction had turned a shade of pale even I could recognize. To be honest, a chill was running down my own spine. This was worse than our initial assumptions.

But the scenario currently unfolding was probably more accurate. It was conceived by people who knew the land and by military commanders who, for all their faults, were trained to think about combat against humans, using their expertise correctly.

It stood in stark contrast to the first half of the meeting, where their expertise had been used to deny reality. The power of the pre-mortem analysis had been fully demonstrated.

"Well then, next let us discuss on the premise that peace with the Empire will be maintained. Will His Highness Delnius or Grand Duke Kurtheite be speaking?" the Chancellor said.

Every eye in the room focused at once on the front of the left-hand row.