kscans

Chapter 219 - Episode 14: Part Two - A Strategy of Exquisite Beauty

We are forced to make critical decisions with only limited information. That is just how things are, including life itself. But that statement gets us nowhere, so economics established a certain assumption. It is the ideal premise of a rational agent, a being who knows all information and can make perfectly correct judgments.

This was only ever meant to be a convenient tool for setting a kind of baseline, yet overconfidence in it has been a contributing factor to economic crises.

The policy I am about to lay out is the opposite. It is a framework for advancing down the correct path in the end, without presupposing we know the answer. In fact, it also serves as proof of just how frighteningly magnificent the system of life truly is.

How does one survive a future for which there is no information?

To simplify, let us consider this situation. There is a room with one hundred doors before you, and inside is a mating pair of a species. Like a shooting game, the back wall slowly closes in. To survive, they must open a door and proceed to the next room, the future.

These doors are the tricky part. Ninety-nine of the one hundred are rigged with deadly traps. What is more, one must pass through four of these blocks of rooms to reach the goal. In other words, to ultimately survive, they must make the one in one hundred choice correctly four times in a row. Of course, they have zero information about which door is the right one.

In other words, a straightforward approach gives you a one in one hundred million chance of survival, an incredible degree of difficulty. A brute force attempt would require one hundred million pairs of creatures.

But life solves this game with startling ease. All that is needed are the resources to produce one hundred pairs, or two hundred children.

First, before the wall closes in, this creature uses all its resources to create one hundred pairs of offspring, and then it dies. The remaining children, one pair per door, open a door and proceed to the next block. As defined, ninety-nine pairs die, and only one is left behind.

The surviving pair recovers the resources from the ninety-nine dead pairs and...

(Note. I will leave the method to your imagination.)

...it creates a new hundred pairs of children. Then it just repeats the process. The number of blocks does not actually matter, whether the odds are one in a hundred million or one in ten billion. Even with no knowledge of the correct answer, they are guaranteed to reach the goal.

Even when the future is a complete unknown, it arrives at the answer of survival. This is the true nature of the system we call life. Sacrifice is not just acceptable, it is a prerequisite. In exchange, there is no need to know the future.

Using limited resources to challenge an unknown problem and brilliantly conquer it. What a magnificent system. All it requires is the fear of death closing in from behind, and just the faintest hope for the future.

I once told Alfina and the others about the Bon-Kyu-Bon of thought, and the population fluctuation in this case follows the same pattern. Yes, this is learning. It is thought.

Whoever thought up this system is a genius. A demonic one, though. Well, this system is not predicated on intelligence, so it is likely no one thought it up at all.

However, even this wonderful method has its limits. To be efficient, the cost per individual must be low and the time to reproduction must be short. Bacteria are ideal.

Large multicellular animals with high production costs are not suited to this method. That is precisely why life developed the brain, which can learn various behaviors without having to risk life and limb.

Its ultimate form is a being that has implemented a sophisticated simulation system in its brain, and furthermore, possesses a civilization that can externalize it in the form of writing, allowing it to be passed down without relying on genes. In other words, humanity.

"Just as you all pointed out, the detailed nature of the Magic Insects is unknown. What's more, we haven't faced them in four hundred years. It may even be eight hundred years since they were truly active. That means gathering information will take time. Therefore, we will proceed on the premise that we will learn as we fight. To put it another way, we will create a strategic situation where we can gradually gather information while fighting to a draw. To rephrase, rather than aiming for victory, we will fight in a way that is optimal for learning."

Of course, it would be best if we could win outright. But we hold not only swords, but pens as well. As humans, we will compete on the efficiency of our learning. In short, we will think with the pen and fight with the sword.

"Humans learn at a much faster rate than Magic Insects. This is our advantage, and we will exploit it. Let's assume the adult insects begin their assault next spring. In the first year, it is enough not to lose. By the next year, we will have the advantage. For example, we do not hibernate, but it's highly likely the Magic Insects hibernate as pupae. That means we can use the results we gather by autumn to advance our research during the winter. This includes the development of sorcery to efficiently strike the Magic Insects, as Princess Maytyl mentioned. And progress will not be limited to sorcery. It could be our fighting methods, or how we construct our encampments. Rear support, too. In other words, the longer the battle continues, the more human tactics will evolve. I will not say the Magic Insects do not learn, but humans are faster. We will gradually gain the upper hand."

No matter how strong or large they are, in the end, the vermin are just a stationary target.

Of course, from my past life experience, I know there is a problem with this.

In my past life, there were insects that harmed humans. A prime example was agricultural pests. Humanity used insecticides to eradicate them and won a great victory. But retribution was waiting. A small number of individuals with resistance to the pesticides survived, and with their natural predators gone, they bred in massive numbers in the farmlands.

It was the result of their learning method, evolution through massive populations and rapid generational turnover, surpassing the clever schemes of the human brain. In other words, to the insects, the insecticide was nothing more than a stationary target. They conquered it not with thought, but with a Bon-Kyu-Bon of population numbers. The battle against antibiotic-resistant bacteria forced us into an even more disadvantageous fight.

But this was the result of a single round. Humanity does not merely learn, it increases the speed of learning itself. As a result, what happens if we can develop new insecticides at a rate that surpasses the speed at which insects mutate? The pests will eventually be exterminated.

This time, our opponents are of a visible size, and while their numbers are great, they are far fewer than bacteria, let alone the insects of my past life.

"And what we need for that is a battlefield where we can focus on learning, without depleting the foundation that supports that learning, our national strength."

I finished my explanation. When you assume a long-term war, strategy must include learning. This is true for both battle and business.

"Wait, but aren't the Magic Insects about to enter a period of increased purple magic, meaning their numbers will just keep growing?"

"Hmm, the basic strategy of luring them to the wyverns' territory is fine, but couldn't Magic Insects start appearing in places other than the Blood Mountains from now on? For example, what if they start breeding in the magic veins in the east and west of the kingdom?"

Maytyl and Fulsy pointed this out. Currently, the Purple Light is assumed to be observed only in the Blood Mountains and their vicinity. But from the images in the prophecy, it is highly likely that purple magic will begin appearing all over the place in the future.

In fact, there has been a reaction that seems to be the Purple Light on the eastern edge of the Empire.

"I see..."

I sank into thought. If those things are insects, even if we reduce their population to a tenth in the first year, they could recover or even double their numbers by the next.

Even if we make our fighting methods significantly more efficient in a year, if the enemy's numbers and range double, we will be slowly worn down. They would create a battle situation where we have no leeway to learn. We would be forced into a strategically disadvantageous position.

"First, it probably takes over a year for those Magic Insects to go from egg to adult."

The purple magic on Wyvern Mountain started two years ago. But the Magic Insects have not reached their adult stage. It has likely been going on for longer in the Blood Mountains, but at the very least, no swarms of Magic Insects have been spotted.

Of course, it is possible the adults that emerge in the Blood Mountains the year after next will be even greater in number than next year's. However, given the size of those Magic Insects, even if they could field a population far greater than dragons, it would never come close to the population of insects. The biomass per individual is tens of thousands of times greater than an insect's.

Taking all this into account, even if we cannot touch the Blood Mountains, their largest source, we might be able to manage the magic veins.

"I see. So if we can hold them off for the first year, we'll create a two or three year window for learning."

"If they go through a pupa stage, we might be able to reduce their numbers during the winter."

Maytyl and the others nodded. Even our current Screwflame is powerful enough to handle normal magic beasts and explore the magic veins.

Of course, this is far from certain. If the calamity were to end in a single year, we could adopt the "safe" policy of just defending our key territories, even if other parts of both nations suffered great damage. While not to the same extent as insects, humans are also living creatures, and as long as we do not go extinct, we can repopulate.

However, in this case, we must assume it will last for decades. That path leads to the inevitability of extinction.

"I understand the policy. But in order to research the purple magic..."

Fulsy looked at Alfina. Right, this method has a huge problem. It places a burden on Alfina. For now, the prophetic crystal is the only known way to artificially generate purple magic. And even setting aside emotional concerns, we cannot bet everything on a system that relies on a single person.

From the very beginning, I have aimed to build a system that does not rely on... that does not place the burden on Alfina alone.

"Alfina-sama. You cannot draw out the purple magic from the crystal at will, whenever you wish, correct?" I asked for confirmation.

"Yes. I can only wait for the crystal to react. But at the current frequency..."

"Next question. Does the crystal's reaction not also depend on its location?" I cut Alfina off.

"...You are right. What would happen if we moved the crystal from the cathedral's altar? I do not believe it would work the same as it has until now. But regarding that, there are many things we could investigate..."

"And that is why I have prepared this, the Negative Magic Crystal."

I pointed to a package that was heavily sealed to prevent it from touching a normal Magic Crystal. A mineral with the potential to draw out magic without the need for a person with the aptitude. With this, it might become possible to generate magic without a caster.

The strategy I just laid out creates a situation where it is more important to simply generate large amounts of purple magic than it is to have the crystal's prophetic ability. All that is left is to find a way to generate purple magic that does not depend on aptitude.

A stable system that does not rely on an individual. Yes, that is the foundation of security.

"So, I would like to start by analyzing this thing's properties at Iris."

Given its property of turning Magic Crystals into worthless pebbles, we cannot just stick it onto the prophetic crystal without testing it first.

"I understand the logic. ...Well, it sounds interesting, so I will allow it."

"...Something about this still bothers me a little. But very well. Since it is you saying it, Ricardo, let us proceed as you say for now."

I had secured the approval of the leaders of both the kingdom and the Empire. Alfina wore a slightly unconvinced expression, but she said nothing.

"Alright, let's split up the work. First, Director, please prepare for the development of a device to improve the radar and transmit a specific wavelength over a wide area. Noel, I need you to work out the basic manufacturing procedure for the new sorcery circuits. Princess Maytyl, I'd like you to help Noel with the design aspects of the sorcery circuits, and also with the analysis of the Negative Magic Crystal."

I assigned the tasks in rapid succession.

"Um, what about me........."

Alfina raised her hand. Crap, I did not think this through.

"Uhm, Alfina-sama......... for the sake of an emergency........."

"Aren't you being even more overprotective than before? ...Well, whatever," Maytyl muttered.

"F, For now, maybe Alfina-sama could coordinate between the teams? I mean, we asked you to do that for the bearings, and for the last joint research project, too," Noel said. I see, a nice save.

"You're right. Yes. Please do. It is undoubtedly an important role."

Especially since it is the kind of thing I cannot do. Yes, a perfect fit for her skills.

"...I understand. But please, be sure to tell me when you need me. And Princess Maytyl, I leave that matter from before in your hands," Alfina said.

"Well, that's how it is. The future of humanity rests on our shoulders, so we had better give it our all," Fulsy said, uncharacteristically. Has he finally developed a sense of responsibility as a leader? As I said earlier, the core of this strategy depends on Fulsy's radar.

"...Haven't I been put in the worst possible position at the worst possible time?"

Noel trembled. It seems she was only now realizing the great weight of her responsibility. That is right. This is on a whole different level of difficulty from training new apprentices. Although, considering we need to mass-produce the new sorcery staves, I would like to ask her to handle the apprentices' training and management as well.

Anyway, enough about that. It is my turn. First, to analyze that mysterious crystal. Generating magic without aptitude, what kind of principle could even make that possible?