kscans

Chapter 46 - Chapter 5. Part Two, Crisis Prediction Map

"I heard from my father. This newly minted Silver Company has quite a bit of influence, doesn't it?"

"I'm an investor."

Maria said it sarcastically. She could say whatever she liked. The cooperation of the Food Guild Master’s family was essential for this matter.

"An investor, you say, but that's with that turnip... I mean, 'stock' system, right? And Mia is one of the investors too. That's different from any investor I know."

After a maid from the residence served tea to the gathered members, bowing to Mia and me before leaving, Rilka spoke up. "For the Grand Ducal House, it's just like a game, I suppose."

Maria then added with a placid look, "We have lent money to Vinder, you know. If the worst should happen, I wonder how we would collect?"

"No, no, my dear creditor. We will pay you back, I promise. More importantly, let's get to the main topic. As part of Kenwell, you must have been informed of some of the details."

I directed the conversation toward the Food Guild Master's eldest daughter.

"That information only went as far as my father. Having Luiza-sama here as well... I'm afraid to even imagine what we're about to discuss."

"We must maintain secrecy. Think of me as your chaperone," Luiza said, making things sound even more frightening. Well, considering the importance of the topics we were about to handle, it couldn't be helped.

Three days after my visit to Alfina, I had gathered the members of Central Garden at the grand ducal residence.

"Why don't you stop being so mysterious and tell us. What's the purpose of this unofficial meeting?" Plural asked, leaning further back in his chair than usual, perhaps out of deference to Luiza. I nodded as if to say, Good question.

"A certain city in this kingdom is about to face starvation, and I want to do something about it."

"What did you say?"

Just as I got to the point, Dalgan had me repeat myself. A hard-of-hearing merchant is as fatal a flaw as being socially inept. Then again, maybe he only has selective hearing for inconvenient things. Perhaps that’s actually a trait suited for a merchant.

"H-Hey, wasn't Central Garden just... a social group for the mock shops at the Shoken Festival?" Belmini said, shaking Rilka's shoulder. Rilka simply patted her head with a troubled look.

"I had a feeling this would happen, but getting involved with you really does lead to the most extraordinary situations," Roston said, officially designating me as a man of excessively high volatility. I wished he wouldn't.

"I'll explain everything properly. The truth is..."

I began to explain to the stunned group the prophetic image Alfina had described to me. The prophecy that starvation could strike the northern part of this kingdom. I added that Alfina had pushed herself to the point of collapse, expanding the scope of her vision until she could faintly make out something like a city wall.

"A prophecy, hmm. Considering what happened last time, it's not that I don't believe you. But as far as we know, there are no signs," Maria said.

"That's right. The grain harvest immediately affects meat prices. We haven't heard anything like that either," Dalgan added, and the other three nodded in agreement. It was the same conclusion the royal palace's planning council had reached. Their data must be reliable.

"I know, but a poor harvest isn't the only cause of starvation. And given the nature of prophecy, the starvation will occur as the result of some disaster."

I had grasped the outline of the data gathered by the palace council thanks to the Grand Duke, who had stormed the Chancellor's office over their failure to manage Alfina's health, with Mia in tow. At the very least, their analysis of crop yields was thorough, and I concluded that if they couldn't predict it with that data, there was nothing we could do on that front. The Chancellor was likely a competent man, at least when it came to tasks like this.

Which is why we needed a different approach. And this is where merchants come in. It was time to show them the power of the private sector.

"I see. So you're saying some sudden event will cut off distribution, and a city will face a food shortage," Maria deduced. Before modern times, famine was often caused by factors other than an absolute lack of food. Even if other regions had a bountiful harvest, people in one area with a poor harvest could starve.

For this case, I had already ruled out war and civil unrest from the start. There was a large river in the north, but a flood was also unlikely. It didn't match the prophetic image. I considered the spread of a crop disease, like the Irish potato famine, but there wasn't enough time for a pathogen to propagate. As for locusts, there was no precedent.

"Also, considering the image of the starving people, it's likely they are also suffering from health problems due to an excess of minerals and potassium."

Even though I had only heard it described, the image of starvation had a powerful impact on me. After all, I came from a country of gluttony where nearly half the food was wasted, only to be reborn in a rich agricultural nation.

"Potassium?"

"Ah, my apologies. To put it simply, it means that region is likely to be short on not just food, but salt as well."

During a famine, people lack not only food but also the salt they get from it. This deficiency, combined with an excess of potassium from eating things like grass by the roadside, causes a synergistic depletion of sodium in the body.

The starving child Alfina saw. Scrawny legs, but with unnaturally swollen feet. That figure, like a hungry ghost suffering from edema, was a strong indicator. However, the famine was predicted for autumn or winter. People lose less salt through sweat than in summer, so we have to consider the possibility that salt itself is also in short supply.

"So why were we gathered? What do you want us to do?" Rilka asked.

"Right. I want to evaluate each region's vulnerability to famine along two axes. One, its food production and stockpiles. Two, the magnitude of the impact assuming its trade routes are blocked. We'll multiply these two factors to create a crisis prediction map for the cities."

"Th-That will be a huge amount of work. Besides, this year's harvest data for every region is..." Belmini said, her voice trailing off uncertainly.

"We have documents with the harvest yields and food stockpile status for each region, compiled by the royal palace's planning council. It’s a first-rate report, produced by the Bureau of Agriculture and supervised by the Kingdom's Chancellor."

"That's an incredible thing to have. It must be a state secret. It's the kind of data we'd kill for."

"Indeed, which is why I can't show it to you directly. And please be aware, we will burn it when we're done."

I looked at the only noble present. Luiza would be in charge of managing the documents. Mia’s memory? Keeping her abilities a secret takes far greater priority.

"So we're the ones to investigate the roads. I see. When it comes to the flow of goods, we know more than the officials do," Rilka said, making a fist with a snap of her wrist.

"That's right. And if it's for the princess's sake, we can't refuse to help," Dalgan said.

"Well, I suppose we have to repay the favor from the Shoken Festival," Roston added.

The members of Central Garden were suddenly fired up. It was a shame I hadn't brought Alfina along for her own safety, but these were words I wanted her to hear.

The members launched into a heated debate, tracing information through their family connections and acquaintances when needed. As a result, several vulnerable cities were identified.

"Tori, Basher, Pomrus, and Kurtheite," Maria said, listing the names. They were all cities dependent on very limited distribution routes due to their location and surrounding terrain. The other members nodded. I glanced at Luiza. The sound of rustling paper filled the air before she shook her head.

"According to these documents, none of these cities seem to have any particular problems."

Cities, with their large concentrations of non-agricultural populations, are inherently vulnerable to famine. That's precisely why their administrators focus on stockpiling food. Generally, larger cities boast more abundant reserves. The disaster was set to occur around harvest time or just before it. Assuming it was just before, that would be the time of year when stockpiles are lowest, but even so.

"Basher and Pomrus are in the south, if anything. The largest city in the north is Kurtheite. It's surrounded by mountains, so it relies heavily on external supplies."

The disaster was predicted to come from the north, a fact we couldn't ignore. The Royal Capital is in the center of the long, east-west kingdom, with Bertold to the west and Kurtheite to the east. Compared to the capital and Bertold, Kurtheite is situated further north.

"But according to the documents, their stockpiles are fine. It's one of the kingdom's major cities, but they have secured enough reserves for their population. Besides, Kurtheite is adjacent to the Grynisias Ducal territory, which is a model student when it comes to food reserves." Luiza shook her head, documents in hand. The Chancellor and Kurtheite were neighbors and political allies. They would surely cooperate if anything happened.

"Geographically, though, it's still a problem. For example, if a landslide were to block this road here, Kurtheite would be isolated. Its link to the Chancellor's territory would be cut off too," Plural said, pointing at the map. Kurtheite was located at the foot of a mountain, with only one major road leading south from the city. Of course, it quickly connected to many other roads, but if that single choke point was severed, it would be a very bad situation.

"Hold on, they produce rock salt there. That place has nothing to do with the salt shortage Vinder mentioned," Dalgan interjected.

"That's right," Plural agreed.

That had come up during trade discussions with the Empire. In a way, it was the least likely place in the entire kingdom to suffer a salt shortage.

"Looking at the data, Kurtheite will be fine on its own, food-wise," Luiza stated.

On the map, it looked like the perfect candidate. But if the data denied it, we had to follow the data. I need to look at this objectively. It is the headquarters of the opposing faction, after all. I might subconsciously want to target it.

"So, Kurtheite is fine, then?"

I was about to move on to consider the other cities.

"No, that's not necessarily true this time." "The situation there is... special."

Maria and Roston spoke at the exact same time.