kscans

Chapter 7 - Chapter 5: Part 2 A Fantasy Hypothesis

"The next step... Yes, now that we have identified the location, we must evacuate..."

"No, that's not it." "It's still not enough to persuade the kingdom."

Since the prophecy itself wasn't being taken seriously, it was highly likely that no measures would be taken even if we narrowed down the region slightly. Besides, the image Alfina saw was limited. There was no guarantee that the damage would be confined to Leylia alone.

"We need to identify the type of disaster."

"B-But, the prophecy can't see the disaster itself."

"We've gained new information about the area where the disaster will occur. That means we can use the surrounding geography to narrow down the potential candidates. We can form a hypothesis about what kind of disaster it will be."

"A hypothesis...?"

Alfina's face was a mask of doubt. Even I have to admit, proposing a hypothesis for a prophecy feels incredibly strange.

"First, let's list the possible disasters. The fact that the villagers are fleeing is a huge hint. From this, we know..."

"They are abandoning fields ripe for harvest, so it must be something truly serious. For cold snaps or droughts, the villagers would have had some forewarning."

"That's right, it's a sudden event. At least, it was for the villagers."

When it comes to matters like this, Mia's intuition is far more reliable. She did live there until she was ten, after all.

"We can consider both natural and man-made disasters... Let's start by examining the human factors."

Mia nodded at my words, while Alfina's expression clouded over. To the west, or more accurately the northwest, lies the border with the Empire. The Empire, a land of many mountains, has always sought food. There were major conflicts in the past. The current long period of peace is thanks to a balance struck between the Empire's internal problems and the mutual benefits of trade.

"Isn't one of the reasons you were told to keep quiet 'to avoid provoking the Empire,' Alfina-sama?"

"...That is correct."

I believe no country can afford to let its guard down with its neighbors, because nations do not operate on principles of good and evil. The Empire should certainly be wary of us, and I'm sure they are. That's precisely why it's natural to avoid needless provocation. There is nothing wrong with that in itself.

If word got out that the kingdom was on high alert against the west, it would raise the Empire's own level of caution toward the kingdom. That in turn would raise the kingdom's vigilance. In the end, a rumor that "the prophecy is predicting an invasion from the Empire" would take on a life of its own. Fifty years of peace could be shattered in an instant.

However, fearing that outcome and failing to consider the possibility of an imperial invasion are two entirely different things. So, we will consider it.

"However, the probability is not high."

I pointed to the map. The border with the Empire is in the northwest. Any large army capable of marching would follow the roads east, toward the Royal Capital. Even if their goal was purely food, the northern regions are more suitable than the south. It's also hard to imagine an imperial army reaching Leylia from the border without any warning whatsoever. And besides...

"Let's confirm the image. Were the houses collapsed? Could you see any smoke on the horizon?"

"No, I didn't see any images like that. It was a clear day, which only made the sight of people fleeing in panic all the more..."

Each time I ask, she may be forced to recall that tragic image. But the information is crucial. If it were war, you'd expect to see at least some smoke. An invasion would mean villages being burned, either by the enemy or by allies to deny the enemy food.

"The next possibility is a large-scale rebellion."

At my words, Alfina's face grew even paler. Considering her family lineage, I can understand why, but we can't afford not to examine this possibility. This region is still disliked by the Royal Capital due to the rebellion twenty years ago. The tax rates are also harsh. But a rebellion that might lead to the massacre of an entire village would have to be an extreme event. Neither Leylia nor its surroundings are that desperate. Especially not with a bountiful harvest.

"This is also unlikely."

Mia nodded in agreement with my explanation. She knows more about farming villages than anyone. Alfina's expression softened with relief.

"Next are natural disasters. Earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions..."

There are no large rivers near that village, and no records of the nearby mountains ever erupting. Of course, one might erupt, but even in modern Japan, we couldn't predict eruptions with sufficient accuracy. The same goes for earthquakes. Pointing to the map, I eliminated the possibilities one by one.

"A plague is also unlikely..."

With the population density of this era, it's hard to imagine abandoning a village entirely because of a plague. When disease strikes, would people just run? I stared intently at the map. Mia nodded at my words. Alfina offered no objections.

"Then the next possibility is... next, the next..."

"Ricardo-kun?" "Senpai?"

As I fell silent, the two girls' gazes bore down on me. This was a problem. I had pretty much exhausted all the possibilities. What other natural disasters could there be? A tsunami? It's not next to the sea. A meteor impact? It doesn't fit the image, and it would be a textbook case of needless worry. Wait, maybe there's magic that can summon meteors...

Or maybe a demon lord was summoned from another world... It's not like there's some demon-lord-like entity inside me that's about to awaken, is there? I'd love to have a cheat ability like that, though. It's not even worth considering. If a demon lord did appear, I could only pray a hero would show up with him. By the way, the idea of me being the hero is a non-starter.

...Damn it, my thoughts are getting more and more fantastical. I shook my head. But something was nagging at me.

"Wait a minute. This is a fantasy world..."

Whether it was man-made or natural, my line of thinking was inevitably based on Earth's standards.

But what I needed to consider now were the disasters that could happen in this world. As Alfina and Mia, who didn't understand the word "fantasy," watched me with puzzled expressions, my fingers flipped through the pages. They stopped near the back of the encyclopedia, on a page showing creatures that didn't exist on Earth.

My other hand reached for the map. My index finger, placed on Leylia Village, moved straight sideways. It pointed to a mountain range drawn in brown and a forest marked in red. Normally, this was the domain of monsters, a place where humans do not tread. But there are exceptions. A phenomenon where vast numbers of monsters overflow from the red forest.

"A Monster Flood..."

A term that held no sense of reality for me escaped my lips. I was struck by the strange feeling that I was talking about an event in a game from my old world.

"A Monster Flood? A horde of monsters wouldn't actively commit arson, at least. And the villagers wouldn't burn their own food out of fear of it being stolen. But..."

"There are no records of a Monster Flood ever occurring in the west," Mia and Alfina said in unison. True enough. Even I had considered potential disasters for Project Renge. In terms of probability, a Monster Flood should be ruled out, just like a volcanic eruption or a flood.

"But, when you think about it, why is that? Why don't Monster Floods happen in the west?"

I opened a map showing the entire kingdom. There are mountain ranges on both the eastern and western sides of the kingdom. The red forests adjacent to them indicate that these are areas influenced by the magical energy from the mountains, the habitats of monsters. The geography of the east and west is symmetrical, and in the east, Monster Floods occur every few years.

I turned the page on monsters. The descriptions were meager to begin with, and information on monster ecosystems, which humans rarely enter, was scarce. I couldn't just type 'causes of Monster Floods' into a search bar and get an answer.

"There's too little information to analyze this. Are there other books..."

"Senpai. Responding to Monster Floods is the duty of the Knight Orders."

"So it's military intelligence."

Information is valuable to begin with. Trying to get certain information feels like trying to find someone who knows someone who knows someone who has what you need. So, should I try to find such a person?

Someone who sides with a prophecy that could destabilize the kingdom, trying to access military intelligence. Even if I'm strictly neutral, that's how it would look. It's a guaranteed death sentence.

I held my head in my hands. Mia also shook her head. But then,

"Um, if it's knowledge about Monster Floods you need, there is someone who knows more about it than anyone else..." Alfina said. Her fingertip was pointed not toward the reading room, but toward the other door. The one that, for some reason, led to the archives.

"The Head Librarian is a retired court magician, right?" Mia said.

So that was his background. I had never even seen him, so I hadn't given him a single thought.