kscans

Chapter 9 - Chapter 6: Latter Half, An Otherworldly Ecosystem

"In other words, there is a factor affecting crop yields in the east that is unrelated to the climate. And it's highly likely that this factor is a monster flood."

I spoke to Fulsy, who was still staring longingly at Mia’s formulas.

"So you’re saying a monster flood, something the Knight Order would crush the moment signs appeared, has the effect of increasing harvests. And your reason is?"

Fulsy turned back to me, a look of irritation on his face. At least he's willing to engage with me now. That's an improvement.

"The monsters' domain, the Rubel Wald, and the cultivated plains are connected by a stretch of forest between them. A change in the Rubel Wald's ecosystem should affect the forest's ecosystem, and a change in the forest's ecosystem should in turn affect the plains' ecosystem. The most likely element is the presence of vermin. The damage from large rats that emerge from the forest at night to ravage the fields is not to be underestimated. Low-level monsters also prey on normal animals. This is especially true when their population increases and their magical energy wanes, in other words, when they are starving. Monsters that spill out from the Red Forest into the woods, specifically something like magic wolves, I’d guess. They would have reduced the population of the forest animals that are pests to the fields. That's my theory. Now then, what is the reason for this year's bumper crop in the west?"

"You're trying to say a monster flood will occur in the west. ...Confound it, but there's some logic to it. Though using a prophesied harvest to support a prophesied disaster is half-baked trickery."

So he figured that part out.

"Most importantly, the crucial piece is still missing. A monster flood won't happen in the first place unless the magical power of the magic vein fluctuates. Am I wrong?"

Fulsy sharply pointed out the logical weakness. He was right. When enough circumstantial evidence aligns, people will easily create a causal link. You don't have to be a novelist, people just love telling stories.

But no matter how many pedestrians jaywalk, a car accident won't happen on a street with no cars. No matter how plausible it seems, if the root cause is absent, it simply won't occur.

Incidentally, statistics works the opposite way, taking coincidence as its foundation. But that's a topic for another time.

"That brings us to a testable question. It's possible the magic vein's power is fluctuating in the west as well. By the way, how are monster floods predicted in the east?"

"The magical power that springs from a magic vein is chaotic. On the other hand, the magical power from a magic tool used by someone with the aptitude is orderly. So, we run magical power through a tool and record the degree to which it is disrupted onto a sheet of magically reactive paper. We do this with properly established standards, as solid, quantified data."

The old man puffed out his chest with pride. This geezer really knows his stuff. His method was more rigorous than I had expected.

"Then if we perform the same measurements in the west, we can prove a monster flood is going to happen, can't we?" Alfina said, her voice filled with excitement. But I shook my head.

"It won't be that simple. There's likely a time lag between the fluctuation in magical power and the monster flood."

I recalled a graph from a science textbook that showed the population fluctuations of predators and their prey. The two cycles were linked, but offset.

"Precisely. The sign of a monster flood isn't based on a single year's magical power, but on a relative pattern, the peak of magical power and its subsequent decline. This takes several years. In the east, we have been measuring magical power for over forty years. However, no such records exist for the west, where no monster flood has ever occurred. Even if we started measuring the west's magical power now, we could not predict a monster flood for this year."

"No..."

A look of despair crossed Alfina's face. They couldn't produce the evidence for the monster flood that now seemed so likely. But, of course, I had an idea.

Since this world also has four seasons, yearly data must be accumulating somewhere. If we were purely after data quality, the glaciers in the western mountains would be best, but you wouldn't have enough lifetimes to get there. That leaves one other possibility...

Yes, the trees around that village have a distinctive color.

But there are plenty of problems. The degradation of the records over time, and whether we can even ensure accuracy since it would be an indirect measurement. Still, it's a possibility.

"What is the margin of error for the measurements?"

"Around ten percent. What of it?"

"What if the director himself, the originator of the method, conducted the experiment?"

"I thought you just needed my knowledge?"

"Young people are prone to making mistakes."

It was a phrase I couldn't easily use with my classmates, but it was fine to say to an old man who had lived twice my cumulative age.

"Hmph. It's been nearly forty years since I established the method. My successors have done nothing but repeat the measurements without changing a thing. What's so interesting about that? The Royal Court cut my research funding, saying they didn't need any greater precision. But I have continued to make improvements."

"Which means."

"I can make a judgment with an order of magnitude more precision."

Fulsy took a sheet of black paper from his drawer.

"Then I'll go retrieve that past data. As soon as I return, I'd like to ask you to measure the samples, Director."

"Do you truly have a way to learn of the past..."

"I have no guarantee. But if it works, we should be able to get records for the past few decades. Then, for comparison, we'll need a similar sample from the east."

What I needed to collect the samples was a thin, cylindrical piece of metal. An ordinary tree from near the Royal Capital would serve as the negative control. A tree from the east would be the positive control. I opened an encyclopedia of natural history. It showed a tree as bright red as autumn leaves. But this tree's color was the same regardless of the season.

The red-leaf tree. It was a species that required magical power to survive and grew only in a limited area within and around the Red Forest.

"Hmph. Well, I suppose I am technically an educator. Humoring a student's nonsense might prove to be an amusing diversion. ...And it is a request from the princess, after all."

As he said this, the corners of Fulsy's lips curled into a smile.

◇◇

When the lecture ended, I left the director's office through the library side. Fulsy was still holding Mia captive, talking about the formulas from before.

That couldn't be helped. But for some reason, Alfina followed me.

"Ricardo-kun, you are truly amazing."

The beautiful girl, who seemed to shine even in the dim library, looked at me with eyes full of respect. I wish she wouldn't look at me with such innocent expectation. I think it will work in principle, but this is a real tightrope walk. My stomach hurts just thinking about her reaction if I fail.

"You will be going to Leylia Village yourself, won't you, Ricardo-kun?"

"Yes, I want to see it with my own eyes. Besides, they're a business partner of the Vinder Company, and I know the village chief."

"I see..."

Alfina stopped walking. Then, as if she had made up her mind, she lifted her head and looked at me with a direct gaze. I had a bad feeling. When this classmate of mine shows her own will, it's highly probable that my self-preservation is threatened. The correlation is so strong there's no need to even calculate it.

"Please take me with you."

"What?"

"I cannot let you bear all the hardship alone, Ricardo-kun."

"I, I appreciate the sentiment, but this is just an errand for my family business, so you need not concern yourself."

She's suggesting something outrageous. What am I supposed to do if I get reincarnated into yet another different world?

"But... I can confirm if that's the village I saw in the prophecy. If I see it for myself, I might be able to recall a more detailed image. Primary sources, was it? They are important, are they not?"

"That is..."

She had struck a nerve. It was the fundamental premise of my hypothesis, the most crucial point to confirm. And she was the only one who could do it.

"B-But, didn't you yourself say that it was difficult for you to travel far?"

"It is not easy, but I will try asking my aunt."

We had reached the exit of the library. Alfina stared at me, her eyes filled with determination. It was a clear expression of her otherwise gentle will. The light in her eyes made me freeze in my tracks.

Just then, the door swung open. A black shadow entered the library. I instinctively stepped in front of Alfina. The light from the reading room cast a silhouette. It was a woman with a ponytail. I saw the glint of something long and thin in her hand.

"Why are you with Her Highness!"

She drew her sword before she even finished speaking. Come to think of it, I think I heard a knock from behind me a moment ago. She must have been told we were in the library when she came to pick up the princess. Did she see Mia? If so, the excuse that we just happened to meet in the library won't work.

"Clau. Ricardo-kun was only responding to my request."

"Wha... N-No... Y-You..."

Clau turned beet red. What on earth did she imagine? The drawn blade in her hand trembled. Her unmarried mistress, alone in a private room with a man, and she, the guard, walks in on them. This is bad. With the difference in our stations, she could probably cut me down out of sheer frustration and get away with it.

"Please calm down, Claudia-dono. Alfina-sama, I believe your phrasing might be causing a misunderstanding."

"...Ah! Um, well... yes, that's right. Ricardo-kun is familiar with the western lands because of his family's business. So, I was receiving his advice about the prophecy. You can ask Professor Fulsy, he will confirm it."

Alfina's words were a jumbled mess. She might be the only classmate of mine who's worse at subterfuge than I am. But hearing her, Clau pushed me aside.

"Your Highness. You must not speak of the prophecy again."

"Clau. But... Ricardo-kun, I..."

She was being too forceful for someone addressing her mistress. Her eyes held an anxiety even stronger than the wariness she had shown me moments ago. Even so, Alfina tried to move closer to me.

"Ricardo. Do not ever speak a word of Her Highness being concerned about the prophecy."

"I promise. Alfina-sama, it was an honor to be with you this time."

As if pushed by Clau's gaze, I exited the library. The two of them didn't follow. They would probably return to the director's office and leave through the hallway.

For some reason, I found myself biting my lip. I should have been relieved that the conversation had been left unresolved. After all, my self-preservation gauge was already at zero, no, it was in the negatives.

Besides, taking a princess to a village is just too unreasonable. Alfina's aunt is the Grand Duchess Bertold, a high noble. She will surely make a sound judgment.